An alternative yardstick is to compare GDP per person now with what it would have been if it had continued to grow at the same pace as during the ten years before the crisis. Economist 1, 2
The market is pausing or consolidating in a large Rectangle Pattern at the moment. The lower “Support” trendline rests at 1,260 while the upper “Resistance” trendline sits at 1,350. The Midpoint of the Rectangle thus falls at the 1,310 area. While these levels are not permanent, they are the current reference boundaries that the market ...Read More
Valuations compared to average since 1976: Price / Sales: 1.4x (Avq:1.1x) Price / Book: 2.3x (Avg:2.2x) Dividend %: 1.7 (Avg 1964: 2.7%) Trailing P/E: 16.1x (Avg:17.8x) Forward P/E: 13x (Avg 13.6x) Forward P/E excluding 30 megacaps: 13.5x Forward P/E of 30 megacaps: 11.5x Higher inflation and slower volatile economic growth could drive earnings inflation-adjusted growth ...Read More
The Economist ranked 27 emerging economies according to their risk of boiling over. Each economy’s temperature is measured using six different indicators: the inflation rate, the unemployment rate relative to its ten-year average, GDP growth relative to trend, excess credit (the growth in bank lending minus the growth in nominal GDP), real interest rates, and ...Read More
Second Half of the Year & Third Year of the Presidential Cycle – Schaeffer’s Investment Research
The recent bounce higher in the U.S. Dollar has been a factor in pushing gold, silver, oil, & the S&P 500 lower. At this point in time, the U.S. Dollar Index is trading right at a key support level marked by the 20 & 50 period moving averages as well a recent low. While I ...Read More
What’s wrong with markets in seven easy slides
S&P 500 and Sector P/E Ratio Charts – Think Big
The Real Mega-Bears – dshort.com
Since that first trough in 1877 to the March 2009 low: Secular bull gains totaled 2075% for an average of 415%. Secular bear losses totaled -329% for an average of -65%. Secular bull years total 80 versus 52 for the bears, a 60:40 ratio. The annualized rate of growth from 1871 through the end of ...Read More